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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd