A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
