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China has sent its coast guard through the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past remote Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.